Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves: GoalBible Expert Predictions, Stats, Free Betting Tips & Odds

The Estadio Bernabeu plays host to one of La Liga's most lopsided fixtures on 21 April 2026 as a beleaguered Real Madrid side — knocked out of the Champions League by Bayern Munich just days ago — welcome relegation-threatened Deportivo Alaves to the Spanish capital. Kickoff is at 21:30 CEST (19:30 UTC). With the title race against Barcelona all but over and European glory gone, Xabi Alonso’s men need a statement performance to restore pride and momentum heading into the season’s final weeks.

From my betting view at GoalBible, this matchup points toward a high-probability Real Madrid victory, but the real value lies in the goalscoring markets. Real Madrid have scored in 28 of their 31 La Liga games this season, averaging an impressive 2.10 goals per game. Alaves, meanwhile, carry top scorer Lucas Boyé (11 goals) into a squad that has not won in nine consecutive La Liga matches — a dangerous mix of desperation and attacking intent that should open up space at both ends of the pitch.

The reverse fixture on 14 December 2025 ended 1–2 at Mendizorrotza, with both teams finding the net. Historical H2H data shows an average of 3.41 goals per encounter in this fixture. With Kylian Mbappé on 23 La Liga goals and Alaves needing every point they can get, I’d expect a lively evening at the Bernabeu. The BTTS angle looks the most compelling — and that’s where I’m placing my focus today.

Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves Free Betting Tips & Our Prediction:

Based on the season statistics, H2H trends, and current form of both sides, two markets stand out clearly. Here are my top picks for this La Liga Matchday 33 clash at the Bernabeu.

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Match Result

Real Madrid @ 1.25

Draw @ 5.50

Deportivo Alaves @ 11.00

Anytime Goalscorer

Kylian Mbappé @ 1.60

Vinicius Jr. @ 2.00

Lucas Boyé @ 5.00

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score Yes @ 1.85

No @ 1.95

Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.50

Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40

Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.55

Player To Be Carded

Jon Guridi (Alaves) @ 2.50

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) @ 3.00

Antonio Blanco (Alaves) @ 3.25

Team Form: Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves

From my point of view at GoalBible, analysing this La Liga clash, Real Madrid sit 2nd in the table with 70 points from 31 matches (22W-4D-5L), trailing Barcelona by nine points. The title race is effectively over, and their Champions League run ended in heartbreak against Bayern Munich on 15 April — a 3–4 aggregate loss that has left squad and supporters deflated. Last five results: W 3–2 vs Atletico (22 Mar), L 1–2 at Mallorca (4 Apr), L 1–2 vs Bayern UCL (7 Apr), D 1–1 vs Girona (10 Apr), L 3–4 at Bayern UCL (15 Apr). One win from five is poor by Madrid’s standards — but the Bayern ties were brutal knockout European games. In La Liga alone, Mbappé has been sensational with 23 goals and Vinicius Jr. remains Madrid’s most dangerous outlet. Xabi Alonso’s side still has the firepower to return to winning ways against a side in survival mode.

Looking at Deportivo Alaves, the picture is bleak. They sit 17th with 33 points from 31 games (8W-9D-14L, GF:35, GA:46), hovering above the relegation zone with seven matches to play. Their last five La Liga results feature draws against Osasuna (2–2), Real Sociedad (3–3), Sevilla (1–1), and a loss to Getafe (0–1) — nine straight games without a win. What I’ve noticed is that despite this winless run, Alaves ARE still scoring: Lucas Boyé (11 goals) and Toni Martínez (8 goals) give them genuine attacking output. This makes the BTTS case more compelling. Travelling to the Bernabeu to break a nine-game drought is, however, an enormous task, and the data firmly backs the home side.

Real Madrid Team News

•  Available: Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Jr., Federico Valverde, Luka Modrić, Eduardo Camavinga, Frán García, Lucas Vázquez, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão (fit, managed minutes), Aurélien Tchouaméni, Brahim Díaz, Arda Güler

•  Out: Thibaut Courtois (thigh injury), Rodrygo (serious knee injury — out for season), Raül Asencio (gastroenteritis, expected return soon)

•  Doubtful: Ferland Mendy (fitness assessment ongoing)

Deportivo Alaves Team News

•  Available: Lucas Boyé, Mariano Díaz, Ibrahim Diabaté, Carles Alenà, Denis Suárez, Antonio Blanco, Abderrahman Rebbach, Youssouph Badji

•  Out: Aitor Mañas (physical discomfort), Yusi Enríquez (physical discomfort), Jonny (physical discomfort), V. Parada (leg injury), Jon Pacheco (shoulder injury)

•  Doubtful: Jon Guridi (knee), Toni Martínez (muscle injury), Carlos Protesoni (knock)

Season Performance & Standings

From what I’m seeing in the La Liga 2025–26 table, the gulf between these two sides is significant. Real Madrid’s 70 points keeps them comfortably in 2nd place and in the top four of European destinations, while Deportivo Alaves are battling for Primera Division survival on 33 points. I think the table data alone tells you everything you need to know about why Real Madrid are such heavy favourites — even a below-par Madrid is a formidable opponent for a relegation-threatened side.

Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings

Real Madrid’s dominance over Deportivo Alaves is one of La Liga’s most consistent H2H stories. Madrid have won 17 of the last 19 meetings, and Alaves have managed just three all-time wins in 27 encounters. What I’d point punters toward is the goalscoring pattern: an H2H average of 3.41 goals per game is substantial, and both teams have scored in several recent meetings. The December 2025 reverse fixture (1–2) is a direct blueprint — Alaves scored, Madrid scored more. That backs the BTTS angle convincingly.

GoalBible Conclusion

Real Madrid come into this match off a difficult sequence that includes painful Champions League elimination, but context is everything. Their losses in April have largely come against elite opposition (Bayern Munich) in high-stakes knockout ties. In La Liga at the Bernabeu, against a side that has not won in nine consecutive games and is fighting for survival, the quality gap is simply too vast to ignore. What I’ve seen this season is that Madrid continue to score prolifically even in their worst patches — and Alaves have too much attacking pride to park the bus entirely.

My top pick is: Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Yes @ 1.85 at DK88. The 54.1% implied probability undervalues what the statistics show: Real Madrid score at home in over 90% of their La Liga games, Alaves have netted in the vast majority of their away fixtures this season, and the H2H average of 3.41 goals per match provides the historical precedent. The December 2025 reverse fixture — Alaves 1–2 Real Madrid — is a near-perfect model for tonight.

For punters looking for a secondary play, Real Madrid to Win @ 1.25 at DK88 is as close to a banker pick as La Liga offers. The 17-2 H2H record across recent meetings, Alaves’ nine-game winless run, and the sheer class of Mbappé and Vinicius Jr. make this a near-certainty. Combined in a double with BTTS Yes, this becomes an attractive value proposition. Get your bets in early at DK88 and enjoy what should be a goals-heavy return for the Bernabeu faithful.