Everton vs Manchester City: GoalBible Expert Predictions, Stats, Free Betting Tips & Odds

Manchester City make a historic first visit to Everton’s shiny new Hill Dickinson Stadium on Monday 4 May 2026, in what promises to be one of the most intriguing Premier League fixtures of the run-in. For Everton, this is far more than a home game — it is a statement occasion at their new 53,000-seat home on the banks of the Mersey, and David Moyes will be desperate to give those fans a moment to remember. For City, with the title race against Arsenal going down to the wire, every point is precious and a slip here would be costly.

From my betting view at GoalBible, this matchup points firmly toward a Manchester City win. Pep Guardiola’s side arrive in Merseyside in blistering form — five wins from their last five matches across all competitions, scoring twelve goals in the process. Everton, by contrast, have taken just one win from their last five league games and sit 11th in the table with 47 points. The Toffees have been solid defensively under Moyes, but City’s firepower — led by Erling Haaland’s extraordinary 24 Premier League goals this season — looks likely to prove too much.

Kick-off is 20:00 UK time on Bank Holiday Monday. This is City’s first-ever competitive visit to the Hill Dickinson Stadium, and while Everton’s fans will create a memorable atmosphere, the numbers strongly favour the away side. Here’s my full GoalBible breakdown.

Everton vs Manchester City Free Betting Tips & Our Prediction:

The data on this one is hard to argue with. Manchester City are in title-chasing form, Haaland is on fire, and Everton are wobbling. That said, Everton’s defensive record under Moyes is the one factor keeping the margin interesting — Jordan Pickford has kept 11 clean sheets this term, and the Toffees have conceded just 39 league goals from 34 games. My primary pick is a City win; for the secondary market, I’m looking at Over 2.5 Goals given City’s attacking output and the xG model projecting a 3.25–0.52 expected goals split.

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Match Result

Everton @ 6.00 

Draw @ 4.60 

Manchester City @ 1.45

Anytime Goalscorer

Erling Haaland @ 1.55 

Phil Foden @ 3.20 

Iliman Ndiaye @ 4.50

Both Teams To Score

Yes @ 2.10 

No @ 1.72

Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 

Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.80 

Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.47

Player To Be Carded

Idrissa Gueye @ 3.20 

James Garner @ 3.50 

Matheus Nunes @ 3.80

Team Form: Everton vs Manchester City

From my point of view at GoalBible, analysing this Premier League clash, Everton come into this match in a difficult run of form. David Moyes’ side sit 11th in the table with 47 points from 34 matches (13W 8D 13L), having taken just one win from their last five league outings. Their recent sequence reads: Win vs Chelsea (3–0), Draw vs Brentford (2–2), Loss vs Liverpool (1–2), Loss vs West Ham (1–2), and Loss vs Arsenal (0–2). They have scored 41 league goals this season and conceded 39 — a respectable defensive ledger. Iliman Ndiaye has been their brightest spark in attack, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has provided 8 goals and 4 assists. The new stadium has brought energy and optimism, but consistent results have remained elusive.

Looking at Manchester City, they arrive as one of the form teams in the division. Pep Guardiola’s side are second in the table, and their title challenge against Arsenal is going right to the wire. City have won five matches on the spin across all competitions — including a 3–0 demolition of Chelsea, a 2–1 win over Arsenal, and a 1–0 victory at Burnley. They have scored 12 goals in those five games and conceded just two. Erling Haaland remains the central figure: 24 Premier League goals this season, including a hat-trick against Liverpool in an FA Cup quarter-final and his landmark 100th Premier League goal — achieved in just 111 appearances. Phil Foden has been City’s creative engine, and Bernardo Silva, in his role as club captain this season, has been a key presence in midfield.

Everton Team News

• Available: Jordan Pickford (GK), Seamus Coleman, Ashley Young, James Garner, Idrissa Gueye, Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Thierno Barry

• Out: Beto (injury), Jarrad Branthwaite (injury), Jack Grealish (injury — note: Grealish joined Everton on loan this season)

• Doubtful: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (fitness monitored)

Manchester City Team News

• Available: Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne (departed to Napoli — not available), Bernardo Silva, Matheus Nunes, Manuel Akanji, Stefan Ortega

• Out: Rodri (injury), Ruben Dias (injury), Josko Gvardiol (tibia fracture — surgery)

• Doubtful: No additional confirmed doubts at time of writing

Season Performance & Standings

From what I’m seeing in the table, these two sides occupy very different areas of the Premier League picture as we approach the final weeks. Manchester City are locked in a genuine title race with Arsenal — every away win matters enormously for Guardiola’s side. Everton, sitting comfortably in mid-table, have the freedom of playing without pressure, which can sometimes make them a tricky proposition at home. But City’s quality and current momentum make them clear favourites regardless.

Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings

The H2H record tells a clear story. City have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, and Everton have not beaten them in any of the last five meetings. Notably, three of the last four meetings produced three or more goals — excellent news for the Over 2.5 pick. City’s most recent visit to Everton’s Goodison Park ended in a comfortable 2–0 win back in April 2025.

GoalBible Final Pick for Everton vs Manchester City

This is as clear-cut as Premier League analysis gets, with a few important nuances. Manchester City are a team in electric form, chasing a title with every game a must-win. They have the most clinical striker in Premier League history in Erling Haaland, a deep squad built for big occasions, and a manager in Pep Guardiola who has never lost his ability to prepare a team for pressure fixtures. Everton, for all the excitement of their new stadium and the solid defensive foundation Moyes has built, simply don’t have the attacking resources to trouble City on current form.

The key absentees — Rodri, Ruben Dias, and Gvardiol — are significant losses for City, but they have covered well this season. Everton are without Beto, their physical striker, which limits their direct threat, and Branthwaite’s absence weakens a backline that will face relentless pressure from Haaland and company.

My top pick is: Manchester City Win @ 1.45 at 22Bet. For punters looking for additional value, Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 at 22Bet is a well-backed secondary selection supported by the xG data, City’s recent goal output, and the historical H2H pattern in this fixture. The Hill Dickinson Stadium will be rocking — but City look set to leave Merseyside with three vital points.