Benfica vs Real Madrid: GoalBible Expert Predictions, Stats, Free Betting Tips & Odds
Benfica welcome Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, 28 January, with the match taking place in Portugal. Madrid are chasing a top-eight finish, while Benfica sit on the edge with only a narrow route into the play-offs.
From my view at GoalBible, this fixture leans heavily in favour of the visitors. The numbers point clearly in one direction, especially when you look at finishing output and individual quality in the final third.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Free Betting Tips & Our Prediction:
After reviewing shooting data, defensive numbers, and attacking roles, GoalBible recommends backing Real Madrid.
|
GoalBible Prediction |
Odds & Bookmaker |
Confidence |
Reasons |
|
Real Madrid to Win |
1.69 @ Gembet (57.8%) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Madrid has scored 19 goals from 140 shots across seven matches, averaging 2.7 goals per game. Their conversion rate is almost twice Benfica’s. Add Mbappé’s form into the mix, and Madrid deserve favourite status. |
|
Kylian Mbappé Anytime Scorer |
1.58 @ Gembet (60%) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Mbappé has 11 goals from an xG of just 2.79, with eight big chances taken. He remains Madrid’s main threat, supported well by Vinícius Júnior. |
Match Result
Benfica @ 4.20
Draw @ 4.20
Real Madrid @ 1.69
Anytime Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe @ 1.58
Gonzalo García @ 2.10
Alvaro Leiva @ 2.10
Both Teams To Score
Yes @ 1.51
No @ 2.39
Correct Score
1-1 @ 6.20
0-1 @ 7.85
1-2 @ 8.00
Player Shots On Target
Kylian Mbappe 1+ @ 1.08
Rodrygo 1+ @ 1.4
Kylian Mbappe 2+ @ 1.5
Player To Be Carded
Jose Neto @ 2.25
Joao Fonseca @ 2.25
Joshua Wynder @ 2.63
Potential Match-Winners
1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
He has scored 11 goals in seven matches with 52.9% shooting accuracy. He has also finished eight big chances. From GoalBible’s view, he is Madrid’s biggest danger.
2. Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid)
He has four assists from 1.45 expected assists. His speed and passing are important when Madrid attacks quickly.
3. Bruma (Benfica)
Benfica have missed chances, but Bruma can still hurt teams with direct runs and shots from distance.
4. Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid)
He leads Madrid’s defence and helps deal with Benfica’s threat and set-piece danger.
Season Performance & Standings
Madrid sits comfortably inside the top three, winning over 70% of their matches so far. Benfica, on the other hand, has struggled for consistency, losing five of seven and conceding more than they score.
From a betting angle, this gap in performance matters. At GoalBible, results alone never tell the full story, but here the data and the table line up clearly.
|
Team |
Pos |
P |
W |
D |
L |
GF |
GA |
GD |
Pts |
|
Real Madrid |
3 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
19 |
8 |
+11 |
15 |
|
Benfica |
29 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
-4 |
6 |
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
There are no recent competitive meetings between Benfica and Real Madrid to review.
|
Date |
Score |
Competition |
|
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
GoalBible Conclusion
The key question is simple: can Benfica slow down Madrid’s attack at home? Based on the numbers I’m seeing, that looks unlikely. Madrid’s finishing output has been among the best in Europe, and Mbappé’s current run only strengthens that case.
From a punter’s perspective, GoalBible supports Real Madrid to win at 1.69, while Mbappé anytime scorer at 1.58 also stands out as a strong option given his role and recent returns. As always, stake with discipline and let the data guide your decisions — Lisbon could see goals.
Dan - GoalBible Maestro
@Dan - GoalBible Maestro - 30 May, 2025Professional football meme agent and part-time referee in GoalBible Community. My hot takes are spicer than your neighbourhood street food and predictions sharper than last-minute winners.