Arsenal vs Manchester United: GoalBible Expert Predictions, Stats, Free Betting Tips & Odds

This is the Premier League game I’ve been talking about all week. Arsenal vs Manchester United usually throws up plenty of betting angles, but this one at the Emirates feels bigger than most given where both teams are right now.

Arsenal know they’re right in the title race and every home game matters as they chase their first league crown since 2004. United come into it with a bit of momentum after recent league results under Michael Carrick, so they won’t be short on belief.

Below, I’ve shared how I’m reading the match, the angles that stand out to me, and where I see value. Kick-off is at 4:30pm on Sunday, with live coverage on Sky Sports.

Arsenal vs Manchester United

Free Betting Tips & Our Prediction:

Match Result

Arsenal 2–3 Manchester United

Team Form: Arsenal vs Manchester United

Arsenal come into this one after a solid 3–1 win away in Milan in the Champions League on Tuesday, although league form has stalled a bit with back-to-back draws against Liverpool and Leeds. Even so, before Aston Villa and Manchester City play this weekend, the Gunners are still sitting seven points clear at the top of the Premier League.

Since Amorim’s exit, United rank first in the league for xG (4.81), shots attempted (41), shots on target (17), xG difference (+4.12), and shot difference (+27). Carrick’s team made a real statement last weekend with a 2–0 win over Manchester City, and if they can back that up here, United would put themselves right in the conversation for a top-four spot.

Arsenal Team News

Arsenal will be without Max Dowmna, Riccardo Calafiori, and Piero Hincapie.

Manchester United Team News

Manchester United are missing Matthijs de Ligt and Joshua Zirkzee for the trip to the Emirates.

Predicted Lineup

Arsenal Predicted Lineup(4-3-3)

Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli

Mikel Arteta has a call to make in attack. Viktor Gyokeres has led the line for much of the season, mainly through necessity, but Gabriel Jesus has put himself firmly back into the picture after returning from the ACL injury he suffered last January. Kai Havertz is also available as a central option.

Jesus made a strong case for a start after scoring twice in the 3–1 win away at Inter Milan on Tuesday, and he could keep his place up front this weekend.

Max Dowman remains unavailable, but he is Arsenal’s only real concern. Both Riccardo Calafiori and Piero Hincapie are back training, although Arteta may be cautious about bringing them straight back in. That could see Jurrien Timber continue at left-back, with Ben White staying on the right-back.

With Havertz, Calafiori, and Hincapie back on the grass, Arsenal finally have a full senior group available for the first time this season. Gabriel Martinelli, Martin Odegaard, and Declan Rice are also expected to return to the starting side after being left on the bench for the midweek win in Milan.

Martin Odegaard’s Current Issues

From what I’ve seen this season, injuries have really disrupted Martin Odegaard’s rhythm. Earlier in the campaign, he made unwanted history by being taken off in the first half of three league starts in a row, which summed up how difficult things had become for him physically.

Since getting back fit, his form hasn’t quite followed. He was taken off after an hour against Nottingham Forest, then didn’t get on the pitch at all in midweek against Milan. Arteta may have been saving him for this weekend, but it still says a lot about how far Odegaard has slipped from his usual level.

When he’s at his best, Arsenal control matches through him. Lately, that hasn’t happened often enough. He did make the difference against Brighton and Bournemouth, but those moments have been too spread out.

I expect Odegaard to come back into the starting XI on Sunday. That said, with players like Eberechi Eze and Mikel Merino pushing for minutes, this feels like a game where he needs to make his mark again and remind everyone why the team runs through him.

Man Utd Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Casemiro, Mainoo; Amad, Fernandes, Dorgu; Mbeumo

With a full week to prepare, it looks likely United will stick with the same starting XI that beat Manchester City 2–0 last weekend. After a performance like that, there’s little reason for Carrick to change much.

That means another outing in a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Kobbie Mainoo keeping his place in midfield. He went the distance against City and played a big role in stopping them from getting into any real rhythm.

One thing that has been settled away from the pitch is Casemiro’s future. Both he and the club confirmed on Thursday that he will leave at the end of the season when his contract runs out.

On the left side, Patrick Dorgu could be used again, with Luke Shaw staying at left-back. United is still short in a couple of areas, with Joshua Zirkzee and Matthijs de Ligt ruled out, the latter still dealing with a back problem.

There is some good news as well. Shea Lacey is available again after missing the derby through suspension, and Noussair Mazraoui, who played most of Morocco’s AFCON final defeat to Senegal last weekend, should be fit enough to be included in the matchday squad.

Spotlight on Kobbie Mainoo

From what I watched in the Manchester Derby, Kobbie Mainoo was outstanding. A few weeks ago, there was real talk about him leaving in January because he was not getting minutes. Ruben Amorim’s exit changed that, and Michael Carrick gave him his chance. Mainoo took it.

He was central to United’s win over City. He did not score or assist, but his influence was clear. On the ball and off it, he kept things controlled and disciplined. Rodri, Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, and Rayan Cherki managed only two chances between them, which says a lot.

This weekend brings a much tougher test. Arsenal have one of the most effective midfields in the league, and Mainoo is likely to come up against Declan Rice at the Emirates. The two worked well together for England during the run to the Euro 2024 final in Southgate’s 4-2-3-1 setup.

If Mainoo can produce another strong display, United will believe they can slow down another team pushing for the title.

Season Performance & Standings

Here is how the Premier League table looks so far in the 2025/26 season.

Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings

Arsenal have avoided defeat in their last five Premier League meetings with Manchester United, recording four wins and two draws, with the latest results listed below.

GoalBible Conclusion

From my betting perspective, Manchester United are improving, and the market has adjusted. Still, Arsenal at home remains one of the league’s most reliable sides.

The straight home win price @ 1.57 feels short, which is why Arsenal to win & under 4.5 goals @ 1.95 stands out as the best balance of risk and return.

If you’re looking for a secondary angle, Bruno Fernandes anytime assist at 1Win offers value tied directly to United’s attacking structure.